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ATP Tennis

Australian Open 2020 Men's Preview

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This year more than any in recent history looks the most wide open.

Looking at the entries, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see anyone of 10 players holding the trophy on the final night at Rod Laver Arena.

The leading contenders in no particular order:

  • Djokovic
  • Nadal
  • Federer
  • Tsitsipas
  • Medvedev
  • Thiem
  • Zverev
  • Wawrinka

Wildcard contenders:

  • Shapovalov
  • Cilic

The speed of the court will play a role as always with the varying styles these players have. This year there has been a change of surface supplier which perhaps potentially introduces a new variable. The most recent history for the surface has been to play medium-fast with lowish bounce and with less spin than the US Open. This fact may explain why Nadal has failed to win here recently despite reaching several finals. Tennis Australia has said the courts would be the same but being brand new on the main stadiums, they may play slower initially.

Assuming the courts do play the same as in the recent past then I think this eliminates Nadal as I don’t believe with his draw that he could beat Djokovic in the final, Medvedev in the semi and Thiem in the quarters.

Before the ATP Cup, I thought Zverev would have a big year and he still might but his second serve in that event was a huge problem, and I can’t see him going deep here on the back of that.

Wawrinka would likely run into Medvedev in the round of 16, and the lower bouncing court won’t do him any favours, and this is where I think his tournament will end.

As I have eliminated three players, this leaves Djokovic, Federer, Tsitsipas, Theim, Medvedev and the two wildcards Shapovalov and Cilic.

I exclude Cilic – who I think can surprise with a deep run, but I don’t believe with his ranking that he can beat two or more of the above players in succession to win the title.

Shapovalov has a stylish, well-rounded game that this surface suits, but I doubt he is ready to win a major and he has to beat Dimitrov to make a quarter-final against Federer that I don’t think he can win.

These further omissions leave me with five players:

Federer: If fresh and firing can go all the way with Djokovic his most significant obstacle in a semi-final.

Djokovic: Seems always to start the year well and loves this venue and surface. Tsitsipas strikes me as the player to bother him with his variety and energy in a quarter-final.

Tsitsipas: Surface suits his attacking game and has shown he has the mental attributes that could take him all the way. I think he will give Djokovic a shake in a quarter-final, but I expect the Serb to sneak past him.

Thiem: Showed in 2019 that he is much more than a clay-court specialist. Has developed his game to be excellent on hardcourts and if he could beat Medvedev in a quarter-final has the mental strength to go all the way. Height of court bounce is a significant factor though, for him, I feel.

Medvedev: Showed last year he is exceptionally hardy and difficult to beat on any surface and with his US Open showing in 2019 looks ready to take out a major. I think being opposed to Djokovic or Federer would pose the biggest threats to his ambitions.

I can’t go past Djokovic for the title, but if he slips up and Federer gets past him, I could see Roger posting his 21st major victory. Either way, I would see the other finalist as being Medvedev.

Who do you have playing in the final?

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Uncategorized

Super-Seven for a new decade

Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and to a lesser extent Andy Murray dominated the ATP for the past decade. As we enter a new decade which players might take control of the ATP tour?

The standout candidates heading into the new decade I think are Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev, Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger Aliassime, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev. When we look back in ten years, I imagine these seven will have shared the majority of big titles on the ATP tour. Therefore, we may find ourselves with a super-seven rather than a big-four.

Once Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have retired, it is not hard to imagine these seven players battling each other for big titles consistently. Leaving the youngest Sinner aside for a moment, the other six have now had at least one year on tour, and we can see that they are very accomplished players who still have varying degrees of scope for improvement. Thiem is the most mature and arguably next in line for grand slam success having already contested two finals at Roland Garros. However, he may find himself in a predicament wherein as he comes to his peak the old guard of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are still very much in contention and may deny him a major. Then as they leave the game, the other six are all in or coming into their prime.

Jannik Sinner is the most speculative selection of this group since we have only had a look at his first abbreviated year on tour in 2019. Based on what I have seen and the performance markers of past players at the same age, I am confident he will be an active force particularly toward the back half of the decade.

For a time, I was somewhat depressed at the thought of having an ATP tour that did not include Federer. There are no players with the style and completeness of Federer’s game, however, during 2019 the accomplishments of these seven players have given me hope that the ATP tour is going to be very exciting during this next decade.

Which players do you think are going to be at the top for the next ten years?

*Honourable mentions to Andre Rublev and Alex de Minaur who miss out on my super-seven.

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Uncategorized

2020 Top 30 Prediction

When I started to put these rankings for each player in order, it became apparent very quickly that this is an impossibly difficult task. Having watched players over time, you get an idea of where you think their abilities lie. However, there is so much more to it.

Many variables go into it, such as:

  • injury concerns
  • how many points a player is defending
  • any improvement or decline a player may expect (technical or mental)
  • their age – sometimes aging a year is good and sometimes not
  • any changes to their staff
  • any changes in their personal lives
  • how did luck play a part in their 2019 ranking?

Another big unknown is tournament draws. All this adds up to probably the most challenging prediction in world sport. But here goes:

PlayerRank
Novak Djokovic1
Alexander Zverev2
Rafael Nadal3
Dominic Thiem4
Stefanos Tsitsipas5
Roger Federer6
Denis Shapovalov7
Stan Wawrinka8
Daniil Medvedev9
Grigor Dimitrov10
Marin Cilic11*
Borna Coric12
Pablo Carreno Busta13
David Goffin14
Alex de Minaur15
Fabio Fognini16
Jannik Sinner17*
Matteo Berrettini18
Diego Schwartzman19
Felix Auger-Aliassime20
Roberto Bautista Agut21
Andrey Rublev22
Karen Khachanov23
Kei Nishikori24
Gael Monfils25
Taylor Fritz26*
Lucas Pouille27
Kyle Edmund28*
John Isner29
Benoit Paire30

Which players do you have locked in for your top 10?

*Outside top 30 in 2019.

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ATP Sport Tennis

No 39. Marin Cilic

Cilic experienced a wretched year by his standards in 2019. He started by making the 4th round at AO but suffered poor form and combined with a knee problem could not achieve any consistent results. It was the first time in 12 seasons where he failed to win a title.

Cilic at 198cms (6′ 6″) fulfils the modern trend of big serve and a big forehand that is typical of the ATP men’s game. However, he has a more well-rounded game than most other players of similar stature. Given Cilic has minimal points to defend and appears over his knee problem, I think he can cement himself back in the top 30 in 2020 once again.

Words that shape my take on him are serve, streaky, humble, nervous.

Serve: The foundation of his game is his serve, and when that is working well, he is capable of big wins.

Streaky: Cilic can have hot periods in matches where everything works well, and he can pull off exciting wins with his big weapons.

Humble:  Cilic always comes across as a very ordinary, quiet person who seems to be liked by everyone in the world of tennis. There is never any drama or antics from him.

Nervous: Marin has always struck me as being anxious, particularly in big matches against opponents that either he is expected to beat or when faced off with someone like Nadal or Federer.

Likes: I always admire players who do not complain or blame others, and I’ve never seen him do this. Surprisingly for a big serve, big guy kind of game, he has an outstanding return of serve.

Dislikes: He drives me crazy when he bounces the ball repeatedly before serving. I always hope that he makes his first serve. When he plays another ball bouncer like Djokovic, I have to resist the urge to turn off the TV.

Areas for improvement: His backhand and volley while not significantly weak, do have scope for improvement. I would never say a player who has won a grand slam is weak mentally, but it has appeared that he could improve his ability to handle the significant pressure moments better. I would suggest his homework is to watch how Federer uses his slice to get to the net on YouTube. Learning this would bring a new dimension to his game that might see him breakthrough for another big tournament win.

Categories
ATP Sport Tennis

No 32. Taylor Fritz

At 22 years of age, Fritz experienced his best year on tour to date. He won his first title at Eastbourne and made finals at Atlanta and Los Cabos as well as a challenger at Newport Beach. 

Fritz at 193cms (6′ 4″) is yet another player following the modern trend on the ATP of big serve and big forehand. Despite having many areas for improvement, Fritz finished ranked 32, and I think he can make the necessary improvements to finish inside the top 30 in 2020.

I have not watched a lot of Fritz; however, words that come to mind are competitor, backcourt, irritable.

Competitor: Taylor has always struck me as someone who is up for a fight and will work hard, especially when his back is to the wall.

Backcourt: He appears to be comfortable trading blows from the baseline, looking for opportunities to press with his forehand. He uses his height to stay up on the baseline to take the ball on the rise.

Irritable:  He gives me the impression that he is often unsatisfied, particularly with his play. His behaviour like this does seem to indicate to me though that he has high expectations on himself, and he wants to be competitive. 

Likes: Although I would not say he is an offensive player, he does seem to want to win points off his racquet.

Dislikes: Does appear to run out of ideas sometimes against more accomplished opponents.

Areas for improvement: His volley is weak and requires vast improvement so he can gain the confidence to come forward and aggressively seek to end points. His forehand while his attacking weapon needs tightening up in general rally play to avoid leaking errors that it is prone to do. He has Paul Annacone as a mentor now so he should be doing extra homework with him and drawing on Annacones experience with Federer and Sampras. Annacone should be showing him Federer’s volley skills.